I had thought science denial would have a bottom.  I had thought that once people began to experience the direct consequences of being wrong, of holding fast to beliefs that were demonstrably at odds with well-established science, they would drop those beliefs.  It turns out I was wrong.

This is the first paragraph of a piece I recently wrote for BigThink. It was part of their “Opting Out” issue. My topic was the remarkable phenomena of people - Americans in particular - believing they can opt out of science (another word for this is science denial). Given that we now have a version of this phenomena operating at the highest levels of power, it's important to understand what the ultimate consequences of Opting-Out really means. You can read full post here but today I want to emphasize something I only touched on in the piece.

What’s the final logical outcome of large-scale science denial?

In the piece I wrote,

Science and science leadership don’t stand still.  When a society becomes infected with the science denial, when its populace thinks it’s OK to opt-out of treating science as a source of public truths, then it elects leaders who lead with that fantasy vision of the world.  But the bill always comes due.  When those leaders slash science budgets for political reasons and create chaos in their own world-renowned scientific institutions, it becomes impossible to plan on the decades long timescales required to ensure the nation is still a scientific leader decades from now.  Worse, the rest of the world is watching.  The best and brightest students from across the world, the ones who used to come to your universities to learn (and then stay to start businesses) go somewhere else. They head for someplace they will be supported and not harassed.

What that means simple. The United States has enjoyed enormous strength and prosperity because for decades it made the support of science a priority. In 1900 the US was not a scientific superpower. In 2000 it was the unchallenged global leader in science and technology. But the list of ways the current administration is actively pulling back from the policies which created that leadership is long and stunning.

History, however is also long. The winds of change sweep old players from the field of significance while carrying new ones in. As an astronomer I am used to taking the long view. But as an American scientist who's proud of what this nation has accomplished I can only hope that this pointless, needless downward spiral stops soon.

Most importantly, it’s a train wreck that’ could be seen coming from miles (and decades) away. The damage being done to US science today is the logical outcome of a nation that imagines science denial to be consequence free.

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PS If you have specific questions or issues you want me to address leave a comment on the website or email me at [email protected]

PPS I could not get this proof-read so please excuse typos etc.

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— Adam Frank 🚀